Mathematical Frameworks for Modeling Listeria Cross-contamination in Food-processing Plants

The possibility of modeling the cross-contamination of Listeria species, total Listeria monocytogenes, or specific L. monocytogenes strains using a quantitative mathematical model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques is proposed. This article illustrates this approach using 2 different models: one that tracks L. monocytogenes number and prevalence for 4 different strains (Model I) and one that tracks only prevalence for a single strain (Model II). These models have been developed to provide a starting framework for predictive modelers and scientists studying L. monocytogenes to begin research together with the ultimate goal of understanding and controlling L. monocytogenes in food-processing plants.